For Facebook, which knows more about its users’ interests than about their shopping needs, Apple’s changes are more worrying. In August it warned they might reduce revenues at its Audience Network, through which it sells ads to other apps, by as much as 50%. But the Audience Network represents less than a tenth of its business. Thanks to its intimate knowledge of users, it will still be better at targeting than almost anyone else. “In a world with a lot less data, who has relatively more?” asks Brian Wieser of GroupM. The effect of GDPR was, if anything, to increase Facebook’s and Google’s market shares, he adds.
对于更了解用户兴趣而非购物需求的Facebook来说，苹果的更新愈发令人发愁。去年8月，Facebook曾警告称，其用于向其他应用程序销售广告的Audience Network的收入可能会减少50%。但Audience Network只占其业务的不到十分之一。由于对用户兴趣的深入了解，Facebook仍然会比其他任何公司更善于精准投放广告。群邑集团的布莱恩·维瑟问道：“在数据大幅减少的世界里，哪家公司能够拥有相对更多的数据呢？”他补充道，如果说GDPR真有什么效果的话，那就是增加了Facebook和谷歌的市场份额。
To improve its tracking of purchases, Facebook is moving to create a closed loop of its own. Last year it introduced Facebook Shops on its flagship social network and Instagram Shops and its sister photo-sharing app. Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s boss, speculated in March that “we may even be in a stronger position if Apple’s changes encourage more businesses to conduct more commerce on our platforms, by making it harder for them to use their data…outside of our platforms”.
Not every ad platform will be able to adapt as easily. Smaller publishers with fewer data and resources will suffer, believes Nicole Perrin of eMarketer, a research firm. Publishers that rely on third-party cookies will be hit hardest. The day Apple launched its new policy, a group of German publishing companies lodged a legal complaint with Germany’s antitrust authorities. Small platforms may also find it harder to persuade phone users to trust them with their data. AppsFlyer, an ad-tech company, found that iPhone users agreed to tracking from shopping and finance apps more than 40% of the time, but 12% of the time with casual gaming apps.